Appendix I

Because of increased public interest and concern about expected losses from future earthquakes in California, the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council recommended that the probability of occurrence of large (magnitude 7 or greater) earthquakes in California be evaluated. In response to this recommendation, the U.S. Geological Survey formed the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

Source parameters for historical earthquakes worldwide are compiled to develop a series of empirical relationships among moment magnitude (M), surface rupture length, subsurface rupture length, downdip rupture width, rupture area, and maximum and average displacement per event. The resulting data base is a significant update of previous compilations and includes the additional source parameters of seismic moment, moment magnitude, subsurface rupture length, downdip rupture width, and average surface displacement.

Lake Roberts Dam is located in Grant County in southwestern New Mexico. Tectonically the damsite is within the Southern Basin and Range Province and the Rio Grande rift as defined by Machette (1998). Although the historical seismicity in the region has been low, the site has undoubtedly been shaken by past large prehistoric earthquakes caused by active regional faults and in historical times, as recently as 1887 (Figures 2 to 4).

The San Andreas fault zone has been a very significant source of major California earthquakes. From 1812 to 1906 it generated four major earthquakes of M ~7 or larger in two pairs on two major portions of the fault. A pair of major earthquakes occurred on the central to southern region, where the 1857 faulting overlapped the 1812 earthquake faulting. A pair of major earthquakes occurred on the northern region, where the 1906 faulting overlapped the 1838 earthquake faulting.